SpaceX Stock Fell Below Its $135 IPO Price. A Lockup Releasing 911 Million Shares Comes Next
Down 33% from its record close and now under its offering price, SpaceX faces a supply shock in August when its first major insider lockup expires.
SpaceX stock slipped below its $135 IPO price on Wednesday for the first time since the company's June 11 debut, touching $132.15 before closing at $135.27. SpaceX raised $75 billion in the largest IPO in US history six weeks ago, debuting at a $2.1 trillion valuation on its first day of Nasdaq trading. Since that record close, shares have fallen 33%. Market cap now sits around $1.8 trillion.
SpaceX stock lockup restrictions on insiders, employees, and early investors will begin lifting within weeks - and the first release is large enough to reshape the supply picture entirely. On the second trading day after SpaceX's debut quarterly earnings report, 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale. That is roughly $123 billion at current prices. The entire publicly tradeable float right now represents about $86 billion worth of shares - meaning the August unlock could add more supply than currently exists on the market.
How the August Unlock Changes the Supply Picture
SpaceX kept its float below 5% at IPO. Forcing investors to compete for a scarce supply of shares pushed valuations above what a broader market might have sustained without that artificial scarcity. When lockups expire, sellers who have waited months for liquidity can finally move. Employees and early investors who received shares at far lower prices than $135 have less incentive to hold than buyers who purchased at the IPO price itself.
An additional 455.8 million shares will unlock if SpaceX's stock price stays above $175.50 for at least five of the 10 consecutive trading days through the quarterly report date. SpaceX currently sits about 22% below that threshold. Either way, lockups releasing through December 8 will increase the tradeable float from under 5% to 40% of the company. Musk's own stake and the remaining 60% stay locked until mid-2027.
27 of 32 Analysts Still Recommend Buying - With a Catch
Analyst sentiment remains bullish by a wide margin. 27 of 32 analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying the stock, according to LSEG data. One recommends selling; four are neutral. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, described the position: "We think at this level, it's relatively safe to at least be involved from a trading perspective. We won't overweight it because they do have the lockup coming." That last clause is the part most retail investors skip when reading bullish research notes.
At 49 times expected revenue, SpaceX remains one of Wall Street's most expensive stocks. Tesla trades at 15 times revenue by comparison. Bulls point to three things justifying the premium: Starlink's profitable subscriber base, a steady government rocket launch contract pipeline, and Musk's track record commanding investor loyalty. SpaceX also reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year - a number the bull case treats as temporary, but one that leaves the valuation dependent on future revenue growth arriving on schedule.
Historical Data on IPOs That Fall Below Their Offering Price
Reuters analyzed 50 high-profile US IPOs since 2010 to measure what happens when a company dips below its offering price early. Of the 50, 21 fell below their IPO price within the first two months. Those 21 stocks gained 61% at median from their debut dates. Companies that held above their offering price in the same window gained 112% at median - nearly double. Falling below the IPO price does not guarantee long-term failure, but the pattern suggests investors face a harder road than those who bought into a stock that held its ground.
SpaceX stock lockup expiry in early August represents the most consequential near-term test for the company's share price. SpaceX has not announced the date of its first quarterly earnings report; analysts expect it in early August. From the second trading day after that report, 911.5 million shares are free to sell. For investors who bought at $135 on IPO day, the question is whether SpaceX's fundamental business - Starlink subscriptions, rocket launches, and a roadmap to profitability - justifies holding through a supply increase that will be larger than the entire current float.
